Melissa Strange vs. Ed Gallrein polls and 2026 forecast (Kentucky's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Ed Gallrein (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Gallrein +28.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Gallrein +36.6 and Gallrein +20.0. Incumbent: Thomas Massie. 2024 presidential result here: R+36.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works