Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 17th District)
Our forecast gives Cait Conley (D) a 76% chance of winning (rating: Lean D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Conley +3.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Lawler +2.7 and Conley +8.9. Polling average: Conley +2.5 across 4 polls. Incumbent: Mike Lawler (R). 2024 presidential result here: D+0.6.
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