Luke Bronin vs. Amy Chai polls and 2026 forecast (Connecticut's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Luke Bronin (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Bronin +31.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Bronin +23.0 and Bronin +39.6. Incumbent: John B. Larson. 2024 presidential result here: D+23.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works