Michael Masuda vs. Tom McClintock polls and 2026 forecast (California's 5th District)
Our forecast gives Tom McClintock (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McClintock +16.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McClintock +24.1 and McClintock +9.4. Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+21.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works