Sarah Elfreth vs. Berney Flowers polls and 2026 forecast (Maryland's 3rd District)
Our forecast gives Sarah Elfreth (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Elfreth +33.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Elfreth +26.6 and Elfreth +41.1. Incumbent: Sarah Elfreth (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+24.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works