Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao polls and 2026 forecast (California's 22nd District)
Our forecast gives Randy Villegas (D) an 80% chance of winning (rating: Lean D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Villegas +4.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Valadao +2.3 and Villegas +10.4. Polling average: Villegas +0.8 across 1 poll. Incumbent: David Valadao (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+1.9.
House forecast · How the forecast works