Doug Chapin vs. Tom Emmer polls and 2026 forecast (Minnesota's 6th District)
Our forecast gives Tom Emmer (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Emmer +16.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Emmer +23.5 and Emmer +8.8. Incumbent: Tom Emmer (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+20.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works