Derek Tran vs. Chuong Vo polls and 2026 forecast (California's 45th District)
Our forecast gives Derek Tran (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Tran +16.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Tran +8.8 and Tran +23.3. Incumbent: Derek Tran (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+4.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works