John Duresky vs. Amanda McKinney polls and 2026 forecast (Washington's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Amanda McKinney (R) a 97% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McKinney +14.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McKinney +22.3 and McKinney +5.5. Incumbent: Dan Newhouse. 2024 presidential result here: R+21.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works