Pete Aguilar vs. Stephanie Vargas polls and 2026 forecast (California's 33rd District)
Our forecast gives Pete Aguilar (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Aguilar +24.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Aguilar +17.1 and Aguilar +31.8. Incumbent: Pete Aguilar (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+10.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works