Greg Stanton vs. Zuhdi Jasser polls and 2026 forecast (Arizona's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Greg Stanton (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Stanton +17.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Stanton +10.2 and Stanton +24.8. Incumbent: Greg Stanton (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+6.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works