Frank Mrvan vs. Barb Regnitz polls and 2026 forecast (Indiana's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Frank Mrvan (D) a 94% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Mrvan +10.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Mrvan +2.1 and Mrvan +18.7. Incumbent: Frank J. Mrvan. 2024 presidential result here: D+0.4.
House forecast · How the forecast works