Danny Minton vs. Jake Ellzey polls and 2026 forecast (Texas's 6th District)
Our forecast gives Jake Ellzey (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Ellzey +17.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Ellzey +24.8 and Ellzey +10.2. Incumbent: Jake Ellzey (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+23.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works