David Dawson vs. Chris McGowan polls and 2026 forecast (Iowa's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Chris McGowan (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McGowan +23.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McGowan +32.2 and McGowan +15.4. Incumbent: Randy Feenstra. 2024 presidential result here: R+31.9.
House forecast · How the forecast works