Jake Auchincloss vs. Thomas Stalcup polls and 2026 forecast (Massachusetts's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Jake Auchincloss (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Auchincloss +30.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Auchincloss +23.2 and Auchincloss +37.9. Incumbent: Jake Auchincloss (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+20.1.
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