Ben McAdams vs. Riley Owen polls and 2026 forecast (Utah's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Ben McAdams (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McAdams +35.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McAdams +28.9 and McAdams +42.4. Polling average: McAdams +40.6 across 1 poll. Incumbent: None (new seat). 2024 presidential result here: D+24.3.
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