Madeleine Dean vs. Aurora Stuski polls and 2026 forecast (Pennsylvania's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Madeleine Dean (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Dean +26.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Dean +18.9 and Dean +33.7. Incumbent: Madeleine Dean (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+16.0.
House forecast · How the forecast works