Mary Gay Scanlon vs. Nicholas Manganaro polls and 2026 forecast (Pennsylvania's 5th District)
Our forecast gives Mary Gay Scanlon (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Scanlon +38.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Scanlon +31.1 and Scanlon +45.8. Incumbent: Mary Gay Scanlon (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+28.9.
House forecast · How the forecast works