Emanuel Cleaver vs. Rick Brattin polls and 2026 forecast (Missouri's 5th District)
Our forecast gives Emanuel Cleaver (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Cleaver +32.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Cleaver +25.7 and Cleaver +40.1. Incumbent: Emanuel Cleaver (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+23.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works