Herb Conaway vs. Michael McGuire polls and 2026 forecast (New Jersey's 3rd District)
Our forecast gives Herb Conaway (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Conaway +20.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Conaway +13.2 and Conaway +27.9. Incumbent: Herb Conaway (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+8.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works