Chris Gallant vs. Nick LaLota polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Nick LaLota (R) an 86% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: LaLota +6.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between LaLota +13.4 and Gallant +1.2. Polling average: LaLota +7.5 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Nick LaLota (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+10.2.
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