JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani polls and 2026 forecast (Arizona's 6th District)
Our forecast gives JoAnna Mendoza (D) an 81% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Mendoza +4.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Ciscomani +2.1 and Mendoza +10.9. Polling average: Ciscomani +3.1 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Juan Ciscomani (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+0.8.
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