Leticia Gutierrez vs. Alex Mealer polls and 2026 forecast (Texas's 9th District)
Our forecast gives Alex Mealer (R) a 97% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Mealer +10.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Mealer +16.5 and Mealer +3.7. Polling average: Mealer +6.2 across 2 polls. Incumbent: None (new seat). 2024 presidential result here: R+20.0.
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