Paige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan polls and 2026 forecast (Pennsylvania's 8th District)
Our forecast gives Paige Cognetti (D) a 52% chance of winning (rating: Toss-up), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Cognetti +0.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Bresnahan +6.0 and Cognetti +6.5. Polling average: Bresnahan +4.9 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Rob Bresnahan (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+8.6.
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