Lauren Reinhold vs. Tracey Mann polls and 2026 forecast (Kansas's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Tracey Mann (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Mann +28.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Mann +35.5 and Mann +20.6. Incumbent: Tracey Mann (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+31.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works