Chris Reichard vs. Jason Smith polls and 2026 forecast (Missouri's 8th District)
Our forecast gives Jason Smith (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Smith +48.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Smith +56.0 and Smith +41.6. Incumbent: Jason Smith (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+54.6.
House forecast · How the forecast works