Lauren Jewett vs. Steve Scalise polls and 2026 forecast (Louisiana's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Steve Scalise (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Scalise +38.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Scalise +45.9 and Scalise +31.3. Incumbent: Steve Scalise (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+38.9.
House forecast · How the forecast works