Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans polls and 2026 forecast (Virginia's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Elaine Luria (D) an 87% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Luria +5.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Kiggans +0.9 and Luria +11.2. Polling average: Luria +1.8 across 2 polls. Incumbent: Jen Kiggans (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+0.3.
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