Gabe Vasquez vs. Greg Cunningham polls and 2026 forecast (New Mexico's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Gabe Vasquez (D) a 97% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Vasquez +8.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Vasquez +2.9 and Vasquez +14.8. Polling average: Vasquez +3.7 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Gabe Vasquez (D). 2024 presidential result here: R+1.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works