Amanda Janoo vs. Phil Scott polls and 2026 forecast (Vermont governor)
Our forecast gives Phil Scott (R) a 98% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Scott +12.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Scott +19.7 and Scott +5.0. Polling average: Scott +3.5 across 5 polls. Incumbent: Phil Scott (R). 2024 presidential result here: D+32.8.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works