Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott polls and 2026 forecast (Texas governor)
Our forecast gives Greg Abbott (R) a 76% chance of winning (rating: Lean R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Abbott +3.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Abbott +8.7 and Hinojosa +2.6. Polling average: Abbott +1.9 across 47 polls. Incumbent: Greg Abbott (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.9.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works