Jerri Green vs. Marsha Blackburn polls and 2026 forecast (Tennessee governor)
Our forecast gives Marsha Blackburn (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Blackburn +18.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Blackburn +26.8 and Blackburn +10.9. Polling average: Blackburn +13.7 across 4 polls. Incumbent: Bill Lee (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+30.1.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works