Dan Ahlers vs. Larry Rhoden polls and 2026 forecast (South Dakota governor)
Our forecast gives Larry Rhoden (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Rhoden +29.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Rhoden +39.7 and Rhoden +20.0. Incumbent: Larry Rhoden (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+29.9.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works