Jermaine Johnson vs. Alan Wilson polls and 2026 forecast (South Carolina governor)
Our forecast gives Alan Wilson (R) a 95% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Wilson +10.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Wilson +18.7 and Wilson +2.9. Polling average: Wilson +10.4 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Henry McMaster (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+18.1.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works