Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity polls and 2026 forecast (Pennsylvania governor)
Our forecast gives Josh Shapiro (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Shapiro +24.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Shapiro +17.7 and Shapiro +30.7. Polling average: Shapiro +22.5 across 20 polls. Incumbent: Josh Shapiro (D). 2024 presidential result here: R+1.7.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works