Tina Kotek vs. Christine Drazan polls and 2026 forecast (Oregon governor)
Our forecast gives Tina Kotek (D) an 88% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Kotek +6.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Drazan +0.7 and Kotek +13.9. Polling average: Kotek +1.4 across 7 polls. Incumbent: Tina Kotek (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+14.9.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works