Kathy Hochul vs. Bruce Blakeman polls and 2026 forecast (New York governor)
Our forecast gives Kathy Hochul (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Hochul +13.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Hochul +7.3 and Hochul +19.7. Polling average: Hochul +12.5 across 28 polls. Incumbent: Kathy Hochul (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+12.7.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works