Aaron Ford vs. Joe Lombardo polls and 2026 forecast (Nevada governor)
Our forecast gives Joe Lombardo (R) a 54% chance of winning (rating: Toss-up), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Lombardo +0.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Lombardo +8.7 and Ford +7.4. Polling average: even across 13 polls. Incumbent: Joe Lombardo (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+3.2.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works