Deb Haaland vs. Gregg Hull polls and 2026 forecast (New Mexico governor)
Our forecast gives Deb Haaland (D) a 97% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Haaland +10.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Haaland +3.5 and Haaland +16.6. Polling average: Haaland +7.2 across 5 polls. Incumbent: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+6.1.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works