Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte polls and 2026 forecast (New Hampshire governor)
Our forecast gives Kelly Ayotte (R) a 96% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Ayotte +9.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Ayotte +15.5 and Ayotte +2.9. Polling average: Ayotte +8.9 across 11 polls. Incumbent: Kelly Ayotte (R). 2024 presidential result here: D+2.8.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works