Jocelyn Benson vs. John James polls and 2026 forecast (Michigan governor)
Our forecast gives Jocelyn Benson (D) a 95% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Benson +7.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Benson +1.5 and Benson +12.6. Polling average: Benson +7.1 across 38 polls. Incumbent: Gretchen Whitmer (D). 2024 presidential result here: R+1.4.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works