Wes Moore vs. Dan Cox polls and 2026 forecast (Maryland governor)
Our forecast gives Wes Moore (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Moore +37.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Moore +27.9 and Moore +47.5. Polling average: Moore +27.2 across 2 polls. Incumbent: Wes Moore (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+29.5.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works