JB Pritzker vs. Darren Bailey polls and 2026 forecast (Illinois governor)
Our forecast gives JB Pritzker (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Pritzker +24.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Pritzker +13.0 and Pritzker +36.0. Polling average: Pritzker +16.3 across 2 polls. Incumbent: JB Pritzker (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+11.1.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works