Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn polls and 2026 forecast (Iowa governor)
Our forecast gives Rob Sand (D) a 91% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Sand +5.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Sand +0.2 and Sand +11.3. Polling average: Sand +7.6 across 22 polls. Incumbent: Kim Reynolds (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.4.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works