David Jolly vs. Byron Donalds polls and 2026 forecast (Florida governor)
Our forecast gives Byron Donalds (R) an 84% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Donalds +4.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Donalds +10.3 and Jolly +1.2. Polling average: Donalds +4.5 across 31 polls. Incumbent: Ron DeSantis (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.2.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works