Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton polls and 2026 forecast (California governor)
Our forecast gives Xavier Becerra (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Becerra +20.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Becerra +14.3 and Becerra +26.2. Polling average: Becerra +16.7 across 11 polls. Incumbent: Gavin Newsom (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+20.8.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works