Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs polls and 2026 forecast (Arizona governor)
Our forecast gives Katie Hobbs (D) a 97% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Hobbs +9.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Hobbs +3.5 and Hobbs +16.0. Polling average: Hobbs +8.3 across 27 polls. Incumbent: Katie Hobbs (D). 2024 presidential result here: R+5.6.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works