Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bernadette Wilson polls and 2026 forecast (Alaska governor)
Our forecast gives Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) a 65% chance of winning (rating: Lean D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Kreiss-Tomkins +1.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Wilson +4.3 and Kreiss-Tomkins +7.7. Polling average: Kreiss-Tomkins +5.3 across 5 polls. Incumbent: Mike Dunleavy (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.7.
Governor forecasts · How the forecast works